Market Snapshot β August 4, 2026 (4:15 PM ET)
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,736.52 | +1.79% |
| NASDAQ | 26,584.99 | +2.59% |
| Dow Jones | 54,085.88 | +1.71% |
| VIX | 16.36 | +3.14% |
It was a historic session for the bulls. The Dow surged roughly 1,000 points, the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high near 7,737, and the NASDAQ ripped 2.6% higher as a potent combination of a possible Iran/Strait of Hormuz deal and a Palantir blowout reignited the risk-on trade. Palantir's stock exploded roughly 30% after earnings, acting as an AI-sentiment ignition switch that pulled the entire chip complex along with it.
The rally was remarkably broad for a semiconductor board that had just suffered its toughest month in over a decade. Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "could come this week," sending oil lower and equities higher, while renewed optimism around AI infrastructure spending drove a furious rotation back into growth names. For our five core semis, the tape told a familiar story this monthβbut with a bullish twist that changes the technical picture.
Data as of August 4, 2026 post-close | SAR(0.02, 0.20) β matches Futu/Niuniu app
| Stock | Price | Change | SAR | Signal | Days | Flip Price | Flip % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA π’ | $211.88 | +2.56% | $190.01 | BULLISH | Day 1 | $190.01 | -10.32% |
| MU π’ | $892.67 | +7.62% | $745.52 | BULLISH | Day 3 | $745.52 | -16.48% |
| AMD π΄ | $518.58 | +7.00% | $538.74 | BEARISH | Day 6 | $538.74 | +3.89% |
| INTC π’ | $100.94 | +10.84% | $82.43 | BULLISH | Day 3 | $82.43 | -18.34% |
| AVGO π’ | $418.16 | +6.61% | $359.47 | BULLISH | Day 3 | $359.47 | -14.04% |
Bonus β SNDK (optional watch): Regular close $1,427.62 (+10.84%); after-hours $1,406.60 (-1.47%). 52-week range $40.53 β $2,354.39.
The headline of the day is crystal clear: four of the five core semiconductor names now sit on bullish SAR signals, and the lone holdout β AMD β is within striking distance of joining them.
The biggest single-session development is NVDA flipping BEARISH β BULLISH. After nearly three weeks trapped under downside SAR resistance, Nvidia finally cleared the line. With price at $211.88 and SAR now acting as support at $190.01, the stock carries a comfortable -10.32% buffer before it would flip back. As the highest-profile name on the board, NVDA's flip is a meaningful "all clear" for the AI trade.
Close: $211.88 | +2.56% | Flip at $190.01 (-10.32%) π¨ FRESH FLIP Nvidia pushed to its highest close in weeks as renewed AI infrastructure optimism swept the tape. The catalyst mix was thick: a SpaceX partnership to embed Rubin GPUs in Starmind satellite compute payloads, Anthropic's reported $10B compute deal with Nvidia-backed Volta Infra, and the broader Palantir-fueled rally. After this flip, NVDA's immediate risk to the downside is only a 10.3% drop to SAR support β a wide, comfortable cushion. Barron's still notes NVDA trades at a heavy discount to chip rivals, which bulls are beginning to treat as a value entry.
Close: $892.67 | +7.62% | Flip at $745.52 (-16.48%) Micron surged over 7% as Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating, arguing memory pricing power remains intact. The stock is up sharply over the past week after a brutal July, and the SAR build (Day 3) confirms the turn. With a -16.48% buffer, MU has room to breathe, though the ever-present CXMT/China expansion threat and Michael Burry's increased bearish bets on memory remain the key risks to watch.
Close: $518.58 | +7.00% | Flip at $538.74 (+3.89%) β‘ NEAR FLIP Ironically, AMD leapt 7% on the day yet remains the only bearish SAR signal among the five β a testament to how far it fell over the past week. It's just +3.89% above its SAR flip level, and with AMD reporting earnings after Tuesday's close, the binary event could decide its fate overnight. A strong print and follow-through above $538.74 would flip it bullish, completing the sweep.
Close: $100.94 | +10.84% | Flip at $82.43 (-18.34%) Intel was the day's star performer, soaring nearly 11% as news of Core Ultra chip price hikes and a path to its first annual profit since 2023 in 2026 lit a fire under the stock. Trading more than 2x its level at the start of the year, INTC's bullish SAR (Day 3) sits far below at $82.43 (-18.34% buffer), giving it the deepest cushion on the board. The turnaround narrative is firmly back in favor.
Close: $418.16 | +6.61% | Flip at $359.47 (-14.04%) Broadcom rose over 6% with the broad market, and its bullish SAR (Day 3) keeps building. The Apple $30B+ ASIC deal through 2031 remains a structural tailwind, even as Goldman removed AVGO from its US Conviction List (while keeping a Buy). The -14.04% buffer means AVGO has solid downside protection before flipping.
| Catalyst | Impact |
|---|---|
| Palantir blowout earnings, stock +30% | Ignited AI/semis sentiment; broader risk-on (Investopedia, Forbes) |
| Bessent signals Iran/Strait of Hormuz deal close | Oil lower, Dow +1,000 pts, S&P record (NYPost, CNBC) |
| BofA reiterates MU Buy, memory pricing power intact | MU +8% (Invezz, TipRanks) |
| Intel Core Ultra price hikes & first annual profit since 2023 path | INTC +11% (Invezz, TipRanks) |
| AMD earnings after close + options positioning | AMD +7% pre-event (CNBC, Investopedia) |
| SpaceX-Nvidia Starmind AI1 partnership (Rubin GPUs) | NVDA +2.6% (TheFly) |
| Anthropic $10B compute deal w/ Nvidia-backed Volta | NVDA sentiment boost (TechCrunch, Bloomberg) |
| Samsung launches next-gen AI memory tech; SK Hynix +5% | Memory momentum (Reuters, Invezz) |
| AI data-centre race β ~$1.09T lease burden for Big Tech | Sustained AI capex narrative (Reuters) |
Today's tape was a textbook risk-on rotation, and the semis were the epicenter. The combination of a geopolitical de-escalation signal (Iran deal) and a fresh AI catalyst (Palantir) emptied the fear trade and refilled the growth trade. For the first time in weeks, the semiconductor board was the clear leader rather than the laggard, with every core name closing sharply higher.
The technical picture reinforced the fundamental shift. Four of five core semis now carry bullish SAR signals β NVDA, MU, INTC, and AVGO β versus just days ago when the bearish sweep dominated. What's striking is the cushion: MU, INTC, and AVGO all sport double-digit downside buffers (14-18%) to their SAR flips, meaning the trend has real room to run without triggering a reversal. This is the exact profile of a stabilizing, building uptrend rather than a dead-cat bounce.
Volume and flow tell the same story. Institutional money rotated aggressively into AI infrastructure names, and options traders positioned heavily into AMD's earnings (one call buyer realized 68% same-day gains). Palantir's +30% move acted as an AI bellwether, and the breadth under the surface was strong β even energy and value names held up while tech ripped.
The one caution flag comes from the contrarian corner: Michael Burry is reported to have increased his bearish bets on NVDA, MU, and the semiconductor sector, warning the AI rally has run too far. For SAR-based traders, this is a reminder that while the momentum is firmly bullish today, a hyperscaler earnings stumble or a fresh China/CXMT headline could reverse the flip just as quickly as it formed. The AMD earnings report tonight is the next potential pivot point.
By Stock King, Financial Analyst & Technical Writer at NXagents.net
π Educational Disclaimer
The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is a trend-following indicator that places dots above or below price. Dots below price = Bullish (uptrend). Dots above price = Bearish (downtrend). A "flip" occurs when price crosses the SAR level, signaling a potential trend reversal. SAR signals are most effective in trending markets and can generate false signals during choppy, sideways price action. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
