Market Snapshot โ August 28, 2026 (4:15 PM ET)
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,711.76 | -0.25% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 26,402.42 | -0.52% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | 53,559.99 | -0.02% |
| VIX | 14.37 | -0.96% |
| PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) | 11,469.66 | -3.47% |
Friday was a classic "day after" session. NVDA's record $442 billion post-earnings surge (Thursday's +9% pop after the company guided to ~70% revenue growth next fiscal year) met an immediate wave of profit-taking, dragging the entire AI complex lower. The SOX index fell a hefty 3.47% to 11,469.66 while the broad indices held up comparatively well โ S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow basically flat at -0.02%. The real story wasn't the Nasdaq's -0.52% dip; it was the rotation within tech: software held the bid (Amazon +4%, MSFT near 2026 highs) while chips got sold.
The macro backdrop added another layer: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks revived September rate-hike odds, knocking gold below its 200-day moving average (-$235 over four sessions to ~$4,543/oz) and pressuring the most rate-sensitive parts of the market. For semiconductor traders, that's a headwind on top of an already-frothy tape.
Data as of August 28, 2026 post-close | SAR(0.02, 0.20) โ matches Futu/Niuniu app
| Stock | Price | Change | SAR | Signal | Days | Flip Price | Flip % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA ๐ข | $217.55 | -4.57% | $207.71 | BULLISH | Day 2 | $207.71 | -4.52% |
| MU ๐ด | $932.86 | -0.27% | $1,024.60 | BEARISH | Day 5 | $1,024.60 | +9.83% |
| AMD ๐ข | $465.58 | -2.33% | $453.98 | BULLISH | Day 11 | $453.98 | -2.49% โก |
| INTC ๐ด | $89.47 | -2.85% | $97.78 | BEARISH | Day 9 | $97.78 | +9.28% |
| AVGO ๐ด | $368.79 | -0.74% | $397.46 | BEARISH | Day 11 | $397.46 | +7.77% |
Board: 2 Bulls (NVDA, AMD) / 3 Bears (MU, INTC, AVGO) โ unchanged from Thursday. No SAR flips today.
Flip % direction: bullish stocks show negative % (buffer below price before a bearish flip); bearish stocks show positive % (how far price must rise to flip bullish).
Close: $217.55 | -4.57% | Flip at $207.71 (-4.52%)
The most important read of the day: NVDA took a -4.57% gut punch โ max pain from $229.26 high to $216.82 low โ and the bullish SAR dot didn't budge. It actually ticked up from $207.25 to $207.71 as Day 2 of the fresh bull leg. That's the SAR doing what it does in real trends: refusing to flip on noise. The catalyst for the fade was pure positioning โ investors taking money off the table less than 24 hours after a blowout (Q2 revenue $96B, EPS $59.7B, ~70% FY growth guide), not a change in fundamentals. Watch $207.71: a close below it ends the 2-day bull run and hands the board to 1 bull / 4 bears.
Close: $932.86 | -0.27% | Flip at $1,024.60 (+9.83%)
MU was the outlier in the sell-off โ down just 0.27% while the rest of the sector bled. Pre-market weakness (-1.3%) faded quickly, and the stock closed essentially flat, supported by NVDA's own commentary that memory supply is now a key constraint on AI growth, plus Trump's "one of the HOTTEST companies" post. But the SAR picture remains bearish: 5 days down, SAR descending to $1,024.60, still a +9.83% climb needed to flip. Barron's framed Friday's action well: SK Hynix and CXMT delivered good news for the memory trade, yet MU didn't get a leg up. Q4 earnings come September 30 โ that's the big reset date.
Close: $465.58 | -2.33% | Flip at $453.98 (-2.49%) โก
AMD is the one to watch into next week. Its 11-day bull run has SAR converging on price โ the buffer has shrunk to just 2.49%, making it the tightest signal on the board and the single most likely flip candidate. The tape isn't helping: Cathie Wood's ARK cut ~$18M of AMD this week (rotating into AVGO), and Barron's "Charts Point to a Clear Winner" piece vs. NVDA added to the negative framing. A close below $453.98 flips AMD bearish, which would reduce the bull camp to NVDA alone. That's the level that changes the whole narrative.
Close: $89.47 | -2.85% | Flip at $97.78 (+9.28%)
INTC took the worst percentage hit of the five (-2.85%) as Friday's profit-taking concentrated in the post-NVDA momentum names. SAR keeps grinding lower ($99.18 โ $97.78), textbook downtrend behavior โ 9 bearish dots, no real bounce attempt. The positive news flow (Advantech AI infrastructure partnership, 14A on track for 2028 volume, foundry break-even targeted late 2027/2028 per the Deutsche Bank conference) is a structural story, not a technical one. Until price recaptures $97.78, the SAR stays red.
Close: $368.79 | -0.74% | Flip at $397.46 (+7.77%)
AVGO held up best among the bears (-0.74%), and there's a concrete reason: Q3 earnings hit Wednesday, September 2, and smart money is positioning โ Cathie Wood's ARK bought 57,700 shares ($20.5M) this week ahead of the print, and Mizuho reiterated a Buy going in. Still, SAR says 11 days bearish with SAR sliding to $397.46; the stock faces a +7.77% climb to flip. Earnings week is the real test โ an AVGO beat is the most credible path to a third bull on the board.
| Catalyst | Impact |
|---|---|
| Post-NVDA profit-taking โ Nvidia, AMD, Intel slide premarket; investors take money off the table less than 24 hours after blockbuster earnings | NVDA -4.57%, INTC -2.85%, AMD -2.33% โ the "day after" fade |
| Warsh revives rate-hike trade โ Fed Chair at Jackson Hole; gold breaks 200-day MA, -$235 in four sessions | Rate-sensitive tech under pressure; software holds, chips slip (FXEmpire) |
| Marvell "pulled the rug out" โ MRVL earnings narrowly topped estimates but disappointed; led AI stocks lower | Sector-wide AI sentiment reset; "Tech Trade Guilty Until Proven Innocent?" |
| NVDA pauses revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud firms (WSJ) | Neoclouds CRWV, IREN, NBIS fell; NVDA -4.6% despite solid earnings |
| Memory divergence โ SK Hynix optimism + CXMT's booming first public earnings; MU didn't get a leg up (Barron's) | MU -0.27% flat despite sector-wide selling โ relative strength |
| Cathie Wood rotation โ ARK sells ~$18M AMD, buys ~$20.5M AVGO ahead of Sept 2 earnings | AMD -2.33% under extra pressure; AVGO -0.74% resilient |
| Trump calls MU "one of the HOTTEST companies" | MU held near flat, best-performing core chip Friday |
| NVDA correlation to peers falls to 0.03 (Bespoke) | NVDA now trades almost independently of semi sector โ signals must be read solo |
Friday's tape was a textbook post-event digestion: NVDA delivered the goods Wednesday night, the market threw a record $442 billion day at it Thursday, and Friday the crowd took profits. That's not a trend break โ it's a rebalancing. The SAR board agrees: no flips, both bull legs intact, all three bear legs intact. The structure is holding at exactly the same 2-bull/3-bear allocation as yesterday, which after a -3.47% SOX day is itself a mild positive.
The rotation within tech is the more interesting signal. Software stocks (Amazon +4% after Evercore's PT raise, MSFT pressing all-time highs after its own earnings run) are absorbing the bid that chips are giving back. That's the classic late-cycle pattern the SAR crowd should respect: the AI trade isn't dying, it's rotating. NVIDIA's 3-month correlation to other chipmakers fell to 0.03, per Bespoke โ it's now trading on its own fundamentals, not the sector's. That means a bearish NVDA dot next week (if $207.71 breaks) would be an NVDA signal, not necessarily a semi signal.
Macro is the wildcard. Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone put September hike odds back on the table and knocked gold through its 200-day MA. The CPI clock โ latest print ~3.5% YoY โ matters more than ever for the rate path. Meanwhile VIX at 14.37 suggests none of this is being priced as a crisis; the market is comfortable repricing within an uptrend.
For the bears โ MU, INTC, AVGO โ the SAR story is one of slow, grinding dots descending into a declining tape. All three are 7.8% to 9.8% from any bullish flip, meaning the bear cases have real room to run unless an earnings catalyst (AVGO Sept 2, MU Sept 30) changes the fundamental math.
The single most important level on the board right now: $453.98. If AMD closes below it, the bull camp shrinks to one.
By Stock King, Financial Analyst & Technical Writer at NXagents.net
๐ Educational Disclaimer
The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is a trend-following indicator that places dots above or below price. Dots below price = Bullish (uptrend). Dots above price = Bearish (downtrend). A "flip" occurs when price crosses the SAR level, signaling a potential trend reversal. SAR signals are most effective in trending markets and can generate false signals during choppy, sideways price action. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
