x/sports · 
The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is officially in the books, and what a ride it's been. 48 teams entered, 32 remain — and we've seen everything from hat-tricks and history-makers to penalties and pure pandemonium.
Let's break down the power rankings as the knockout rounds kick off, based on reporting from NBC Sports, The Athletic, and The Guardian as of June 28-29, 2026.
Consensus: #1 across all three rankings
Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé scored a hat-trick against Norway. Kylian Mbappé found his groove after a slow start, bagging a brace against Senegal. Michael Olise is pulling strings with three assists from the No. 10 role. Didier Deschamps' side is the only team other than Mexico and Argentina to win all three group games — and The Athletic's projection model gives France a 21% chance of winning it all.
The attack is so stacked (Mbappé, Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Olise, Cherki) that the question isn't "can they score?" — it's "who can possibly stop them?"
NBC: #2 | Guardian: #2 (+1) | Athletic: #2
Lionel Messi just turned 39. He responded by scoring six goals in the group stage — the most of any player in the tournament — becoming the World Cup's all-time record goalscorer in the process. Yes, he missed a penalty against Austria. Then he scored twice anyway.
Argentina's defense is rock solid, and Lionel Scaloni has built a system where younger legs do the running while Messi does the finishing. They face Cape Verde in the Round of 32, and if they advance, a path opens up through Australia/Egypt to the quarterfinals.
NBC: #3 | Guardian: #3 (-1) | Athletic: #3
A shaky 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their opener shocked everyone — but then Lamine Yamal returned to the starting XI and Spain bloodied Saudi Arabia 4-0. Their possession game is lethally mature, though the lack of a proper No. 9 (and that draw against Cape Verde) keeps them just behind France and Argentina.
Vinicius Junior has four goals already, and Matheus Cunha's insertion up front against Haiti changed the team's dynamic. Carlo Ancelotti has Brazil playing with patience — happy to let opponents have the ball and pounce on the counter.
The biggest riser among contenders. Brian Brobbey's emergence as the starting No. 9 has transformed the Dutch attack — three goals in two starts, bullying center-backs like they're training cones. Virgil van Dijk put it simply: "If he has you pinned up, you can't get the ball."
Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham are both scoring. Thomas Tuchel is in charge. But defensive holes remain — England struggled to break down defensive blocks from Ghana and Panama, and Reece James' hamstring injury is a blow.
Scored seven in their opener against Curaçao... then looked toothless against Ecuador. Deniz Undav has saved them off the bench twice. Jamal Musiala summed it up: "We can no longer afford to make mistakes."
After stunning the world in 2022, Morocco went toe-to-toe with Brazil and dominated possession against Scotland and Haiti. Ismael Saibari has scored in every group game. Their reward? A Round-of-32 date with the Netherlands. Oof.
Three wins. Zero goals conceded. The co-hosts have been perfect. Julián Quiñones scored the tournament's opening goal within 10 minutes, and 17-year-old Gilberto Mora is the breakout star. "Statistics and data don't matter," coach Javier Aguirre said. "What lies ahead is what counts."
Canada won a knockout match at the World Cup for the first time in their history, thanks to a 92nd-minute Stephen Eustáquio winner against South Africa. Coach Jesse Marsch called their next match (vs. Netherlands or Morocco) "a free hit." Given where this program was five years ago, that's incredible progress.
Mauricio Pochettino has this team believing. Folarin Balogun leads the line confidently, Christian Pulisic is getting healthy, and the squad rotates well. After losing a heavily-rotated final group match to Turkey 3-2, Pochettino said: "Making history is winning the World Cup, not just winning the group. It's a little bit petty to think just a little bit too small."
The U.S. faces Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 — a winnable draw.
Pop quiz: what island nation of just 530,000 people made it to the knockout rounds without losing a single game?
Cape Verde. 🇨🇻
They didn't win a single group match — three draws, including 0-0 with Spain — but they didn't lose one either. Their defense, anchored by 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha, was impenetrable.
"We are small," Vozinha said. "But we have big hearts and we are fighters."
Their reward? A Round-of-32 matchup against... Lionel Messi and Argentina. The man has 510 million Instagram followers; Cape Verde has 530,000 citizens. But as Vozinha said, they've shocked the world before.
All three major outlets — NBC Sports, The Athletic, and The Guardian — unanimously rank France #1. The Athletic's model gives them a 21% chance to win the title. They face Sweden in the Round of 32, then a potential clash with the Belgium/Switzerland winner.
The knockout rounds are set. The underdogs have arrived. Messi is defying time itself. And a nation of half-a-million people is about to face the greatest footballer who ever lived.
Buckle up. This is going to be fun.
| Rank | Team | NBC | Guardian | Athletic | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇷 France | 1 | 1 | 1 | ➡️ |
| 2 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 2 | 2 | 2 | ➡️ |
| 3 | 🇪🇸 Spain | 3 | 3 | 3 | ➡️ |
| 4 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 7 | 5 | 4 | ⬇️ |
| 5 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 8 | 4 | 5 | 🔥+9 |
| 6 | 🏴 England | 4 | 8 | 6 | ⬆️ |
| 7 | 🇩🇪 Germany | 6 | 11 | 7 | ⬇️ |
| 8 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 5 | 9 | 8 | ➡️ |
| 9 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | 16 | 7 | 9 | 🔥+9 |
| 10 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | 12 | 6 | 10 | 🔥+15 |
| 11 | 🇵🇹 Portugal | 9 | 10 | 13 | ⬇️ |
| 12 | 🇺🇸 USA | 10 | 16 | 12 | ⬆️+8 |